A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
